Xinhuanet Beijing June 24th (Reporter Gu Qianjiang Han Qiao) Some experts have recently witnessed dramatic changes in China's macroeconomic situation: not long ago, they were still discussing whether the Chinese economy is overheating; but now, the topic is suddenly It has become a slowdown in the Chinese economy, and some people even assert that it will become cold.
Various statistics show that China's economic growth in the train is decelerating: the overall consumer price level (CPI) continues the decline in the first quarter, and the increase in April and May is only 1.8%, indicating that the current inflation has been very mild.
--CPI data for the first five months of 2005 --
May data: May CPI remained unchanged at 1.8% in May. The chain fell for the third consecutive month. April data: Bureau of Statistics: China's consumer price rose by 1.8% in April
March data: Bureau of Statistics: Total consumer price level rose by 2.7% year-on-year in March
February data: China's CPI rose by 3.9% year-on-year in February. The short-term pressure on interest rate hikes is not large. January data: January CPI growth rate was 1.9%.
The two main drivers of economic growth – investment and net exports – are also weakening. From January to May, the growth rate of China's real estate development investment fell by 2.4 percentage points from the first quarter. It is certain that this will slow down the growth rate of all investment; the export growth rate will gradually slow down, and the import growth will gradually accelerate.
“The emergence of a slowdown is a normal phenomenon for the Chinese economy to move toward a 'soft landing',†said Xu Lianzhong, an expert on the price monitoring center of the National Development and Reform Commission. Although investment growth may slow down, it is still enough to support the target of 8% annual economic growth.
In fact, the experts of the authoritative organization tend to think that the Chinese economy is getting better and better, that is, it is expected to achieve a relatively high state of "high growth, low inflation" while maintaining rapid growth.
“We believe that GDP growth rate will remain at 9%, CPI will increase by 2-3%, and investment growth will be around 25%, which is the best combination for the Chinese economy,†said Dr. Peng Xingyun from the Institute of Finance of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. The Chinese economy is entering such a state."
In 2003, China bid farewell to the five-year deflation and ushered in a new round of economic growth. However, the subsequent overheated investment, soaring credit, and tight coal, electricity and oil transportation made the Chinese leadership realize that it is necessary to adopt strong macro-control measures to prevent the economy from overheating.
Experts believe that after the implementation of this round of macroeconomic regulation and control in the past two years, the slowdown in the economy is exactly what China expects to see. D?D avoids economic ups and downs, thereby smoothing the economic cycle and making new hard-won A period of economic growth lasted for a longer period of time.
"From a medium-term perspective, the deep meaning of this round of macroeconomic regulation and control is not anti-inflation, but anti-deflation," said Dr. Wang Xiaoguang, Economic Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission.
He analyzed that the rapid growth of investment in the past two years has brought about a strong supply capacity, and in the case of slow growth in final demand, China is in danger of deflation. One of the main focuses of China's macroeconomic regulation and control is to prevent deflation in the future due to overcapacity by curbing supply.
“Therefore, the current economic adjustment has reduced the possibility of deflation in China in the future,†said Wang Xiaoguang. “The most important thing for the Chinese economy is to improve the quality and efficiency of growth, accelerate the transformation of growth patterns, and increase consumption. More work on demand."
However, the experts also reminded that although the Chinese economy is not at risk of deflation, it is necessary to prevent the gradual increase in deflationary pressure due to excessive policy adjustment or untimely regulation. In this sense, the central bank's monetary policy can be considered to be relaxed.
As the government's determination to regulate the real estate industry is very large, coupled with increased trade frictions, China's investment and exports may continue to slow down in the second half of the year, which will undoubtedly exert some pressure on short-term economic growth.
Experts were optimistic that the Chinese economy will continue to grow rapidly during the interview. Wang Xiaoguang pointed out that China's entry into this round of economic growth is supported by internal forces, such as the upgrading of consumption structure and industrial structure, and the high growth of private and joint-stock enterprises, but this "fundamental" of the Chinese economy is not Change, China is fully capable of achieving growth of more than 8% this year. (Finish)
What is CPI?
The Consumer Price Index, abbreviated as CPI, is a price change indicator that reflects the price of products and services related to residents' lives. It is usually used as an important indicator for observing inflation.
If the consumer price index rises too much, indicating that inflation has become an economic instability factor, the central bank will have the risk of tightening monetary and fiscal policies, resulting in uncertain economic prospects. Therefore, the excessive increase in the index is often not welcomed by the market. For example, in the past 12 months, the consumer price index rose by 2.3%, which means that the cost of living increased by an average of 2.3% over 12 months ago. As the cost of living increases, your value for money decreases. In other words, a 100-yuan banknote received a year ago can only buy goods and services worth 97.70 yuan today.
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