The prices of the most recent mainstream 0.5W and 1W LEDs have dropped faster, falling by 5-10% in the fourth quarter of 2011 and almost 40-50% in 2011. It is expected that this speed will slow down somewhat in 2012 because high-power LEDs still have certain technical thresholds and costs, so it is estimated that its prices will drop by 20-30% throughout 2012.
In order to further reduce the cost of LEDs, some suppliers in the industry are currently trying to develop high-power LEDs using cheaper silicon and metal materials as substrate materials. However, this practice was a good question in early 2011, but it was last year. In the third and fourth quarters, the price of sapphire at the end of last year has been reduced by more than half compared with the beginning of last year with the increase of LED production capacity and the expansion of production capacity of sapphire substrate manufacturing. For example, the price of sapphire was more than 30 US dollars at the beginning of last year, but the lowest price was only about 7 US dollars at the end of last year. When the price of sapphire has dropped below 10 dollars, the advantages of using other materials as substrates are not obvious.
The technology of silicon substrate actually developed quite early, but it has not been developed, mainly because of the following important issues: First, silicon has more defects and its luminous efficiency is relatively poor. Second, when silicon is used for epitaxial growth, since silicon itself absorbs light, it is necessary to remove the silicon and use other substrates (whether metal or other substrates) as the light source carrier. There must be a conversion of the substrate here, this process itself is not so easy. Moreover, when you add a process to replace the silicon substrate with another substrate, the benefits of using silicon basically are gone. The use of sapphire as the substrate does not require another substrate replacement, the manufacturing process is simple, with the continuous decline in the cost of sapphire, the advantages of low-cost silicon will become insignificant.
From the LED cost point of view, the cost of using silicon carbide as the substrate is much higher than that of the sapphire substrate, but the light efficiency and epitaxial growth quality of the silicon carbide substrate is better. Silicon carbide materials are classified into two types, opaque and transparent, such as the use of light-transmitting silicon carbide materials to make the substrate more expensive. The opaque silicon carbide material, like silicon, must also be converted after the epitaxy. The substrate conversion process involves another process, and there are also certain problems with the yield. So at present, we are mainly based on sapphire materials. The technology has been developed for a long time and is very mature.
As for when the LED bulbs can really rise, it should be a special time next year. Many predictions indicate that LED lighting will rise significantly in 2013 or 2014, but others have said that it will wait until 2015. However, according to our recent observations, due to the instability of supply and demand, the decline in the demand for backlight, and the unstable market in Europe and the United States, LED price reductions are relatively fast. It is expected that these factors will stimulate the LED lighting market to advance. The price of the first energy-saving light bulb was about 20-30 US dollars, and it has now dropped to 2-3 US dollars. Today's LED lighting bulbs may also take almost the same path, and now the price of LED energy-saving light bulbs has dropped from the original 50 US dollars to less than 20 US dollars now. It is expected that in the third or fourth quarter of 2012, the LED lighting market will start to appear at the latest in early 2013.
Now many manufacturers of energy-saving lamps are doing LED lamps, but we have to see that the price of LED lamps has dropped from 30 US dollars to 10 US dollars, and many of the costs have to be compressed, so we are now concerned about how many lumens each US dollar can receive. ". In terms of a light bulb of 800 lumens, in 2011, after the package was completed, it was an average of 1 US dollar and 200 lumens (average level in the industry was about 160-180 lumens). The best we could do was 250 lumens, and we plan to achieve 300 in early 2012. 400 lumens, LED bulb prices will also fall simultaneously.
High-voltage LED is the latest attempt to help the industry solve the heat and light efficiency problems. At present, two types of high-voltage 1W LEDs, which are about 50V and 70V, are mainly developed for the lighting market. This allows customers to easily meet the requirements of 220V or 110V mains power through different arrangements and combinations. Based on the opinions of circuit control design experts and chip design experts, we set the LEDs for these two voltage ranges to be the easiest to match with the mains. This is our main push, and it is the first we put forward. Many manufacturers Followed.
The advantage of using a high-voltage LED is that it reduces the loss of voltage drop, while effectively reducing the drive current. Finer copper wire can be used in the circuit. Our high-voltage LED has been mass-produced for more than one year. The high-voltage LED has much better light efficiency. The single-brightness can reach 120lm/W, and the low-voltage LED is generally about 100lm/W. According to light efficiency or total output lumens, customers have the flexibility to choose. We designed it with a 1W LED platform. Compared with low-voltage LEDs, the heat energy of the high-voltage LED is evenly distributed on the chip. The heat energy of the low-voltage LED will be concentrated in a certain range. Although the heat dissipation is done well, it will be cracked because the area is continuously heated. The high voltage LED can transmit heat energy evenly through the entire chip, so the stability is relatively good.
High-voltage LEDs will in the future be a mainstream demand trend for space-constrained applications such as bulb lamps and spotlights. In places where high power is traditionally used, such as stage lights and wall washers, because of its unlimited space, some voltage control circuits can be deployed. At this time, high-voltage or low-voltage LEDs are used, and the difference is not so great. However, in a small space where the control circuit is not so well-arranged as a bulb, high-voltage LED chips are a good solution.
At present, the cost of high-voltage LEDs is higher than that of low-voltage LEDs, but with the increase in the use of high-voltage LED products and the expansion of production scale, the situation may not be complete. From my current point of view, the process of high-voltage LED is more complicated, but after six months or one year, when it becomes a stable market, the yield rate will increase, and the cost will gradually drop. It is expected that after the second and third quarters of 2012, the market will become more and more stable.
At present, Cree and Osram are also doing high-voltage LED, and there are also two to three domestic companies doing it. We currently have some examples of bulb lamps using high-voltage LEDs and there are already finished products being sold in the market. Some of the most famous light bulb manufacturers in the world use our products.
We are currently involved in a lot of markets. In the past few years, display backlights dominated, but recently the lighting market is more concerned because this is a new application and an area worthy of our expectations. From the point of view of substitution and acceptance, the main market is bulb lamps and tubes, one is concentrated in a very small bulb, and the other is spread out to the entire tube. The two applications and designs are not the same, but they complement each other.
In order to further reduce the cost of LEDs, some suppliers in the industry are currently trying to develop high-power LEDs using cheaper silicon and metal materials as substrate materials. However, this practice was a good question in early 2011, but it was last year. In the third and fourth quarters, the price of sapphire at the end of last year has been reduced by more than half compared with the beginning of last year with the increase of LED production capacity and the expansion of production capacity of sapphire substrate manufacturing. For example, the price of sapphire was more than 30 US dollars at the beginning of last year, but the lowest price was only about 7 US dollars at the end of last year. When the price of sapphire has dropped below 10 dollars, the advantages of using other materials as substrates are not obvious.
The technology of silicon substrate actually developed quite early, but it has not been developed, mainly because of the following important issues: First, silicon has more defects and its luminous efficiency is relatively poor. Second, when silicon is used for epitaxial growth, since silicon itself absorbs light, it is necessary to remove the silicon and use other substrates (whether metal or other substrates) as the light source carrier. There must be a conversion of the substrate here, this process itself is not so easy. Moreover, when you add a process to replace the silicon substrate with another substrate, the benefits of using silicon basically are gone. The use of sapphire as the substrate does not require another substrate replacement, the manufacturing process is simple, with the continuous decline in the cost of sapphire, the advantages of low-cost silicon will become insignificant.
From the LED cost point of view, the cost of using silicon carbide as the substrate is much higher than that of the sapphire substrate, but the light efficiency and epitaxial growth quality of the silicon carbide substrate is better. Silicon carbide materials are classified into two types, opaque and transparent, such as the use of light-transmitting silicon carbide materials to make the substrate more expensive. The opaque silicon carbide material, like silicon, must also be converted after the epitaxy. The substrate conversion process involves another process, and there are also certain problems with the yield. So at present, we are mainly based on sapphire materials. The technology has been developed for a long time and is very mature.
As for when the LED bulbs can really rise, it should be a special time next year. Many predictions indicate that LED lighting will rise significantly in 2013 or 2014, but others have said that it will wait until 2015. However, according to our recent observations, due to the instability of supply and demand, the decline in the demand for backlight, and the unstable market in Europe and the United States, LED price reductions are relatively fast. It is expected that these factors will stimulate the LED lighting market to advance. The price of the first energy-saving light bulb was about 20-30 US dollars, and it has now dropped to 2-3 US dollars. Today's LED lighting bulbs may also take almost the same path, and now the price of LED energy-saving light bulbs has dropped from the original 50 US dollars to less than 20 US dollars now. It is expected that in the third or fourth quarter of 2012, the LED lighting market will start to appear at the latest in early 2013.
Now many manufacturers of energy-saving lamps are doing LED lamps, but we have to see that the price of LED lamps has dropped from 30 US dollars to 10 US dollars, and many of the costs have to be compressed, so we are now concerned about how many lumens each US dollar can receive. ". In terms of a light bulb of 800 lumens, in 2011, after the package was completed, it was an average of 1 US dollar and 200 lumens (average level in the industry was about 160-180 lumens). The best we could do was 250 lumens, and we plan to achieve 300 in early 2012. 400 lumens, LED bulb prices will also fall simultaneously.
High-voltage LED is the latest attempt to help the industry solve the heat and light efficiency problems. At present, two types of high-voltage 1W LEDs, which are about 50V and 70V, are mainly developed for the lighting market. This allows customers to easily meet the requirements of 220V or 110V mains power through different arrangements and combinations. Based on the opinions of circuit control design experts and chip design experts, we set the LEDs for these two voltage ranges to be the easiest to match with the mains. This is our main push, and it is the first we put forward. Many manufacturers Followed.
The advantage of using a high-voltage LED is that it reduces the loss of voltage drop, while effectively reducing the drive current. Finer copper wire can be used in the circuit. Our high-voltage LED has been mass-produced for more than one year. The high-voltage LED has much better light efficiency. The single-brightness can reach 120lm/W, and the low-voltage LED is generally about 100lm/W. According to light efficiency or total output lumens, customers have the flexibility to choose. We designed it with a 1W LED platform. Compared with low-voltage LEDs, the heat energy of the high-voltage LED is evenly distributed on the chip. The heat energy of the low-voltage LED will be concentrated in a certain range. Although the heat dissipation is done well, it will be cracked because the area is continuously heated. The high voltage LED can transmit heat energy evenly through the entire chip, so the stability is relatively good.
High-voltage LEDs will in the future be a mainstream demand trend for space-constrained applications such as bulb lamps and spotlights. In places where high power is traditionally used, such as stage lights and wall washers, because of its unlimited space, some voltage control circuits can be deployed. At this time, high-voltage or low-voltage LEDs are used, and the difference is not so great. However, in a small space where the control circuit is not so well-arranged as a bulb, high-voltage LED chips are a good solution.
At present, the cost of high-voltage LEDs is higher than that of low-voltage LEDs, but with the increase in the use of high-voltage LED products and the expansion of production scale, the situation may not be complete. From my current point of view, the process of high-voltage LED is more complicated, but after six months or one year, when it becomes a stable market, the yield rate will increase, and the cost will gradually drop. It is expected that after the second and third quarters of 2012, the market will become more and more stable.
At present, Cree and Osram are also doing high-voltage LED, and there are also two to three domestic companies doing it. We currently have some examples of bulb lamps using high-voltage LEDs and there are already finished products being sold in the market. Some of the most famous light bulb manufacturers in the world use our products.
We are currently involved in a lot of markets. In the past few years, display backlights dominated, but recently the lighting market is more concerned because this is a new application and an area worthy of our expectations. From the point of view of substitution and acceptance, the main market is bulb lamps and tubes, one is concentrated in a very small bulb, and the other is spread out to the entire tube. The two applications and designs are not the same, but they complement each other.
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